Media Inflation in 2025–2026: Navigating Uncertainty in the U.S. Advertising Landscape
The 2025–2026 media inflation outlook reflects an unprecedented period of uncertainty—for marketing professionals, businesses, and the advertising industry at large. According to the latest World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) inflation report, to which Cortex Media contributed, this climate is pushing advertisers to adopt a more cautious and strategic approach to media planning as they head into the upfronts.
At the recent Association of National Advertisers Advertising Financial Management conference (ANA AFM), one phrase stood out: “Uncertainty is a strategy.” This sentiment, attributed to current U.S. government leadership, echoes the volatility playing out across financial markets—and it’s directly influencing advertiser behavior.
Mixed Signals Across Channels
The WFA report confirms that media inflation in the United States is far from uniform. While overall prices have risen modestly, the picture is complex:
• Linear TV continues its slow decline, driven by shrinking audiences and surplus inventory. Tentpole events like the Oscars and Grammys no longer deliver the viewership they once did. Still, premium live sports remain an outlier—commanding premium prices thanks to their engaged, real-time audiences. Even in this space, however, streaming platforms are gaining ground, increasingly broadcasting live sports and placing additional pressure on traditional networks.
• Advertisers are responding with caution. Concerns over tariffs and broader economic instability have led many brands to reduce spending in traditional channels. Inventory is growing, but demand isn’t keeping pace.
Digital Pricing: Stable, But Evolving
In digital, pricing is largely stable—with notable growth in paid search. However, this trend may not be sustainable. The rise of AI is transforming how consumers discover products, contributing to a decline in traditional search and a noticeable dip in Google’s market share recently. As the WFA notes, “younger demographics [are] increasingly starting their purchase journeys on retail sites rather than search engines”, and in many cases, on social.
Other areas of digital media are also feeling the impact of a changing landscape. Display and open-web inventory face downward pricing pressure, particularly as advertisers become more performance- and data-driven. Ongoing privacy changes have further complicated the landscape, introducing volatility in targeting capabilities and driving brands to reassess their digital strategies.
Retail Media: Slower Growth, Higher Scrutiny
Retail Media—a hot topic at nearly every industry conference—is showing slower growth, and possibly even contraction, compared to the boom of recent years. Growth is heavily concentrated among the “big three”—Amazon, Walmart, and Target—who dominate the space. Smaller players are losing momentum, though niche platforms focused on specific categories may continue to show resilience.
Importantly, while retailers may require brands to spend on their media networks, that doesn’t always translate to efficient investment. At Cortex, our recent audits of retail media have revealed that not all retail media spend is yielding strong returns, prompting brands to reassess how they allocate budgets in this space.
Stewardship and Flexibility Will Define the Year
In this environment, the need for successful negotiations, media governance, cost transparency, and real-time performance data is more critical than ever. Advertisers must know not just where their money is going, but what it’s doing. Clear accountability and strong stewardship are essential tools for navigating a volatile landscape.
While Upfront commitments may increase this year, expect advertisers to demand flexibility—including the freedom to shift between linear and digital channels and the ability to cancel commitments. These will not be the media deals of the past with solid investment commitments.
Let’s Talk
Want a deeper dive into media inflation for 2025? We’re happy to share our latest report—including the numbers—and discuss how you can maximize your media investment to ensure every dollar is working hard for your brand.